A few thoughts on polls

I have a problem. I'm addicted to politics. Even when they depress me so much that I cry myself to sleep over the disastrous policies of the current administration, I can't tune out. I'm addicted to information and I know there are a lot of people out there with similar inabilities to disconnect. Luckily, I'm connected to people like Randi Rhodes, Thom Hartmann, Rachel Maddow, and Keith Olbermann; people who care more about the truth than partisan party politics -- and all three will attack Democrats when they do something wrong; their counterparts on the right, your Drug Addled Gas Bags, Sean Hannities, Ann Coulters (anyone ever notice how the right-wing pundits vastly outnumber the left-wing ones in our "liberal" media?) don't do that. They don't. Limbaugh still supports Bush. So does Hannity. So do O'Reilly and Coulter. But that's not my point.

I begin with this rather rambly preface because I've been, through a twitching eyelid (work stress+political stress= twitching eyelid) checking in with Gallup's Election 2008 Coverage daily, despite being fully aware of their incompleteness and fallibility. And, of course, McCain got a bump in the polls during the Palin thing, proving once again, as Rachel Maddow reported last night, that McCain does well in the polls when no one is talking about him. Then the market crashed.

Since Monday, Obama has been gaining. On Friday McCain was ahead by 1. By the end of Tuesday, Obama was up by 2. Yesterday he was up by 4. And today, the Obama lead continues to increase because people aren't as stupid as the Republican party wants them to think they are. Americans realize that the economic collapse is beause of the policies of the current president, who is a Republican, the current leader of the Republican party; ergo, Americans are coming around to the idea that this shit is mostly Republicans' faults.

Now, polls like Gallup, whose daily poll calls up 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans, are not a reliable source for absolute numbers -- and it's not because of the "Bradley Effect" which states that people will tell a pollster (out of guilt) that they're going to vote for the black guy, but then go and vote for the white guy out of sheer racism; I think with the economy the way it is right now, people are going to pay more attention to the issues and less attention to the whispers behind closed doors of "did you know Barack Obama is black?" (Noting of course, that if Hillary had won the nomination, the screams about her feminine instability -- despite the fact that she is passed menopause and her testosterone levels have gone up dramatically in relation to the estrogen and progesertone levels, hormones that sexists like to attribute female instability to -- and screaming "she's a woman! what if she starts crying?!" rather than whispering about the color of her skin. The media is tainted sexist and always has been -- but the racism exists too and is much more subversive; just look at how they're treating Michelle Obama.)

Ahem, getting very rambly today. Gallup, by polling 500 of each registered party is, in effect, skewing results toward the Republicans because, while a majority of voters are registered as Independent (and in Washington, you don't register as affiliated with a party), 11% of the country are now registered as Republicans, and 30% (or thereabouts) are registered as Democrats. That means, that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 19%, making the Gallup Daily skewed because it's not taking an accurate sampling of voters.

The other issue is that poll companies like Gallup only call landlines, and most people under 30 (the demographic who support Obama by the greatest margin) only have cell phones. That means a huge demographic of people aren't being represented accurately in these polls. These two factors combined predict that Obama's numbers are actually a LOT higher than the Gallup Daily would have you believe. (I won't get into the stupid questions, because the questions pollsters ask often skew toward Republicans as well.)

So, if the polls aren't acurate, why am I compulsively checking the Gallup Daily? Because they do accurately represent (well, sort of) shifting trends amoung Americans. The poll numbers have indicated that Obama's lead is gaining momentum because of the economic collapse. The media is telling people about just how shitty things are right now, and Americans are waking up and saying "you know, things are shitty right now, and Republicans are lying to me about it not being shitty", and that results in gains for Democrats in general, and the Obama/Biden ticket in specific. (The "how can John McCain fix an economy he doesn't acknowledge is broken" ad didn't hurt either.)

The trend here indicates that Americans aren't as stupid as Republicans want them to believe they are. That's a good thing.

Sympathy for the devil

I've been contemplating the last 8 years quite a lot lately and I've started to wonder: what if the Bush Crime Family has taken on the role of necessary evil in order to provide a catalyst for the change this country needs? What if all of the shit in the last 8 years was done intentionally in order to wake up the American people?

That presents two problems: first of all that all of this shit was done intentionally. If it was, there are a few people who are going to have to serve jail time for playing the part of necessary evil.

The second problem is presented when we ask, what if it's not working? What if it's going to take a full on fascist regime to get the attention of the American people? What if they are still in such a stupor at that point that it takes a literal invasion of our land by the whole of the Civilized World in order to free us from this attempt to wake us up? Millions of people will die in meantime, and millions more lives will be destroyed.

I hope that the past 8 years have served as a catalyst and that Barack Obama wins the election thus demonstrating that the American people have woken up from the nightmare that has been the past 28 years (although, one could argue that the nightmare has been going on since Watergate). But I still wonder if it wasn't all done intentionally, in a backward sort of way, to create more progress. It's a little far-fetched, but I guess I want to entertain the notion so that I can believe that there has been a conscious purpose to the catastrophe that this country has become.

Quick hit: DNC party platform for 2008

I'm reading the Democratic National Platform for 2008 (pdf), titled "Renewing America's Promise", and I've got to say it's pretty goddamn progressive, and there are some dramatic proposals in this year's platform. I'll go over it with you in more detail after I finish reading it, but here are some of the things that have popped out at me in the first 12 pages. (All italics are mine.)

• "WE will provide an immediate rebate to American families struggling with the record price of gasoline and other necessities. We will devote $50 billion to jumpstarting the economy, helping economic growth, and preventing another 1 million jobs from being lost."
• There are numerous mentions of supporting people with mental health issues and substance abuse disorders.
  
• "We must end heath care disparities among minorities, American Indians, women and the low-income through better research and better funded community-based health centers. ... We will speed up and improve reimbursements by the Indian Health Services."
• "Research should be based on science, not ideology. We need to invest in biomedical research and stem cell research, so that we are at the leading edge of prevention and treatment."
• "We oppose the current Administration's consistent attempts to undermine a woman's ability to make her own life choices and obtain reproductive health care, including birth control. We will end health insurance discrimination against contraception and provide compassionate care to rape victims. We will never put ideology above women's health care."
• "We also will reform corporate bankruptcy laws so that workers' retirements are a priority for funding and workers are not left with worthless IOUs after years of service."
• "In America, if someone is willing to work, he or she should be able to make ends meet and have the opportunity to prosper. To tat end, we will raise the minimum wage and index it to inflation, and increase the Earned Income Tax Credit..."
• "We will pass the "Lilly Ledbetter" Act, which will make it easier to combat pay discrimination ; we will pass the Fair Pay Act; and we will modernize the Equal Pay Act."
• "We believe that standing up for our country means standing up against sexism and intolerance. Demeaning portrayals of women cheapen our debates, dampen the dreams of our daughters, and deny us the contributions of too many. Responsibility lies with us all."

It's nice to see some of my feminist ideals being represented in the platform for the political party which I support. Once I finish reading this I'll go through the important parts in more detail. So far, I'm totally excited. Go Donkeys!

McCain flagship (uh... flagbus) sporting Obama sticker

via The New Argument and Huffpo
but first heard on The Randi Rhodes Show (which also features an amusing rant about all of McCain's flipflops)

So, John McCain was in Florida this week trying to woo Jews with the help of Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) who is the Republican Veep nominee of my dreams! (more on that in a minute). But of course, while in South Florida the (poorly named) Straight Talk Express managed to do some damage to local drivers,
including running over a minivan. Lovely.

After the accidental destruction of an inconsequential "Security Mom"s gas-guzzling child-transporter, a camera began following the McBus and the images you see here were captured. That's right, the Straight Talk Express, after flipping and flopping over Florida drivers turns out to be supporting Barack Obama for president. If you're not laughing right now, you have no sense of humor.

And, from the looks of the bumper-sticker shaped discoloration on the other side of the bumper, this isn't the first time this has happened. In other words, people are so very fed up with John McCain, they're vandalizing his flagbus with the bumper stickers of his opponent. Fucking hilarious.

In regards to Republican Veep of my Dreams, Joe Lieberman there are two things that make me pray every night that he is given the veep nod:

• A McCain/Lieberman ticket would almost assuredly lose. If Big Mac wasn't gonna get creamed by Obama in November already, adding Joe Lieberman to the ticket would put the pickles and onions on this sesame seed bun of failure.
• Joe Lieberman would get creamed in 2012 by anyone (but likely Ned Lamont) in his bid for reelection to the Senate. You'll remember that Ned Lamont absolutely decimated Lieberman in the Democratic primary in 2006 because Democrats in Connecticut were so utterly fed up with this asshole (and I make no pretense at having even a modicum of respect for Joe) that they couldn't wait to vote for someone else. Lamont only lost because Republicans in Connecticut abandoned their own candidate in favor of the "Connecticut for Lieberman" candidate.
  

So, go Joe! Seek that nod! And John: he's your best only friend! Your best only chance of winning CT... and probably no other state... but that's good for everyone else.

Fucking hilarious. Keep it up Straight Talk Express...

Affectionately,
Rachel

Summer Reading List

Here are a few books I've read, am reading, or purchased with the intent to read in the near future this summer:

Full Frontal Feminism by Jessica ValentiThis is a great guide for any woman, but especially young women, who aren't quite sure what feminism is about (3rd-4th waves baby), why it's still around, and/or why they should care. I've got a couple of people I'm thinking about getting this book for partly to help validate concerns, partly to influence the next generation of self-sufficient women.

How to be an Adult in Relationships: The Five Keys to Mindful Loving by David RichoI bought this one last summer, and tried to read it then, but I only managed to actually do so after I devoured FFF and started my reading again. It's a really great guide to thinking about your behavior toward yourself and your partner or partners. The title sounds a little condescending (especially if you recieve this book as a gift) but it's definitely not presented that way. As they say, you can't judge a book by its cover.

He's a Stud, She's a Slut and 49 Other Double Standards Every Woman Should Know by Jessica ValentiI love Jessica Valenti. Her second book lays out in blunt language just how fucked up our society is in the way it treats women. I highly recommend it, espceially if you're starting to get a sinking feeling that something's just not right here.

The Vagina Monologues by Eve EnslerThis is the 10th Anniversary edition (which came out last year) and has a forward by Gloria Steinem. I have to admit that I read the entire thing (200 pages!) in about three hours on a Friday night (then proceeded to write for an hour and a half about my vagina). It's really a great read. Now, I have seen it performed (well, part of the HBO special), but I had never read the words. It's got a huge impact and is a must-read for all owners of vaginas.

The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder by Vincent BugliosiYes, this book actually has the shortest title of all the books I've read so far this summer. Vincent Bugliosi was the prosecutor who sent Charles Manson to prison, and he's written a number of prescient non-fiction books about legal matters. He wrote about the idiocy behind the prosecution in the OJ Simpson murder case, as well as the Supreme Court precedent that allowed Jennifer Flowers' civil case against Bill Clinton to go forward while he was still in office. Bugliosi is a brilliant legal mind, and I have to admit it's nice to see some of my opinions about our "president" being validated by someone who is not on the side of the Democrats or Republicans, but on the side of the truth and the side of the people whose lives have been destroyed by this motherfucking war.

The Essential Feminist Reader edited by Estelle FreedmanI just started getting into this one last night. It's my bathtime book. As you might guess it's a collection of feminist writing (theory, poems, speeches, plays etc) spanning the last 500 or so years. I figure it should be in my library if I'm gonna call myself a feminist.

Sex, Time, and Power by Leonard SchlainThis is from the same author who brought us the very heady Art and Physics. I haven't started reading it yet (you can see I've had a few books on my table for the last few months... and I keep picking up new ones to read! I love reading!) but I look forward to it. (A friend of mine has another of his books The Alphabet and the Goddess and we're planning to trade when we finish reading.)

I don't know how I'm ever going to read all the books I have, but I think I'm just going to figure out how to do it. Books are so great. They promote ideas, they promote imagination. Plus, they alleviate boredom better than the internet!

So go check out a book! I highly recommend any of the ones above.

Affectionately,
Rachel